About 5 possible scenarios of development of Ukraine, which were born in the 2014 final Studrespublika, military assistance from NATO to Ukraine and Ukrainian irresponsible politicians spoke Republican leader Pavlo Viknyanskyyatlive broadcast of TV Chanel«112 Ukraine» onSeptember 10, 2014. Leading studio Tetiana Khmelnytska and Vadym Karpyak.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: In our studio, social activist Pavlo Viknyanskyy. We will talk about NATO expansion, the supply of arms to the country and many other nuances. Pavlo, welcome!
Vadym Karpyak: First, I would like to hear your position about statement of Yuriy Lutsenko, when he said that the 5 countries are willing to supply us with weapons and after that 4 countries immediately disowned that? Later Yuriy Lutsenko also joked that we will buy in any commissary. Is it a diplomatic game, or simply the inability and lack of understanding of Mr. Lutsenko what to say openly and what not?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: The fact is that Yuriy Lutsenko heads the presidents party and it imposes additional obligations. And the leaders of the former Orange parties in Ukraine must finally dispel that stereotype developed around them, they are very much talking and less doing. Too bad… but the desire of the people that this stereotype has been overcome — but in fact we do not see this in real action. I think it was unnecessary to say, somewhere words may be not fully thought out, and on the other side — the desire to be an expert where maybe not some of our countrys leaders and political parties really are.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: How realistic these bilateral agreements on arms supplies to Ukraine look?
Vadym Karpyak: How can they be made public at all?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Well, I am absolutely convinced that things relating to war, peace, money supply, oil and gas occur in all countries, a little bit in the corridors and behind the scenes, and you cannot impose things too publicly. There is the language of diplomacy for this. And if you want to be someone who is liked by a large number of voters, you have to keep your mouth shut, especially when there is a war.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: OK. You did not answer the question: how real is the supply of weapons?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: I think that the more Ukraine will plunge into a situation of direct conflict, not only as a civil conflict, but also directly with Russian citizens, troops, the question restocking Ukrainian weapons, ammunition, etc. will be more urgent. Will NATO countries directly provide this assistance? I think that some of the countries will. Regarding the NATO alliance in general… if it happens, it will be the beginning of World War.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: Well, look. In fact, at the summit of NATO, Ukraine as well has shown a desire to military-political cooperation, but NATO is not ready to apply its strength on certain regions of Ukraine. How will then our cooperation with NATO help reform our defence? How do you see it?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: It is my position of the citizen of Ukraine; it is the position of the organization of Studrespublikawhich I represent. We discussed that a lot in the last final of Studrespublika, which was previously performed in the Crimea, and now on the Black Sea seaside in Rybakivka with more than 800 top students and experts of Ukraine. And there appeared a number of scenarios, how can we operate in Ukraine, including the rate of how we can interact with our external partners such as the former partners, as we call them, and with current partners.
We are in situation where we have to negotiate with NATO. Block NATO is not that long horror story that was drew to us. This is not just a military alliance but a political union. And special relationships that were before, they are certainly more to deepen. Does NATO expect us? You know, it is the same question, whether we are a country member of the European Union directly… not really expect. We see it in the last NATO summit: and this applies not only to Ukraine, because the same story for Georgia, which took several steps to integrate directly into NATO as a member of NATO. There are no illusions. We are alone in this fight.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: I just would like to hear from you, from your point of view, what our country, what we as citizens of Ukraine can take from this collaboration right now to improve our defence?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Firstly, standards of NATO troops and discipline. Secondly, it is line of policy: policy for European integration provides a direct integration with NATO. Will this membership be or not, as in almost all European capitals? It is a separate controversial issue, but the line of policy certainly should be as that. Next, learn from this experience and military participation in NATO military operations that take place beyond the borders of Ukraine, and getting there military experience. Moreover, the experience of interaction and cooperation, it would be for Ukraine very useful.
As to what we can do as citizens to engage block NATO to Ukrainian events — well, nothing. We can write letters, but, you know, it is not a matter of public relations but a question of real politics. We started today with a discussion about Yuriy Lutsenko — this is more a PR and we suffer of it. So we should have less PR, more action, more genuine policy. For this we must be competent.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: Let is talk about competence and about PR of another political initiative. For many years the issue of the referendum on Ukraine is accession to NATO has been raised. And now, on the eve of early parliamentary elections that question rises again and here in the party Batkivshchyna hope that the referendum on NATO and, in fact, the election may be held on the same day. How do you think, should we carry out a referendum on Ukraine to join NATO?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Tetiana, as we know, signatures were collected and a referendum was prepared, but communists collected them, their position was just to prevent the entry of Ukraine into the NATO. The conclusion is simple: large Ukrainian political actors, who, in principle, responsible for the situation that has developed in Ukraine, [cynically] used again to PR their publicity, to promote, such crucial steps for the country. For now you can hold a referendum and lose, or divide Ukrainians even more. We cannot carry it out now, but better to do it calmly and prepare later.
Next, how clear will be political moves further, even after if the referendum is successful? Are NATO countries ready after the referendum to take Ukraine (because there is no particular proposal)? It is rather a political move, perhaps, in these conditions, the right political move, but do not bind to it.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: Are personally you for or against the referendum?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: We stand for another referendum for a long time, we even participated in initiative group, prepared certain steps which concern the adoption of the new Constitution of Ukraine on nationwide referendum, and where further assumed more rights for decentralized communities of Ukraine and also assumed neutral status. However, a way out of non-alignment situation could be solved only through the conduct of nationwide referendum. I emphasize, first the new Constitution, then – other actions.
Vadym Karpyak: How does your constitutional position concern Tetiana is question whether you are for or against the referendum on joining NATO?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Nowadays I am against the referendum and this is not time when you need to put emphasis on such instrument. If Parliament is normal, well, there are expectations — although in real assessments unlikely it to be of higher quality — it will take appropriate action.
However, making a step backwards: first, the rules of a game agreed by all parts of Ukraine not using a language of weapons and not through the language of blackmail, as unfortunately is the case in Ukraine, after that a referendum on various issues. By the way, not only for cooperation with NATO, that question is about integration to the European Union, this issue is our relations with Russia, that is the question of the official status of the Russian language, this is perhaps the question that we do not share, but a significant part of Ukraine is in these positions — issue of federalization of Ukraine — and these issues must be solved not by MPs, but all the people of Ukraine.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: On federalization, today Poroshenko at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers said that the draft law on the special status of separate districts, regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk region, next week will be introduced in the Ukrainian parliament. Well, here I have a question to you: How do you think, what implications will be for our country, if the relevant documents will be adopted?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Well, it is part of the political game. You can make that cute decision for anything, for example, a woman who went to some other man, and she had been with me. She has, conventionally, no relation to me, but I can say anything…
This is me talking about parts of the territory, which concerned the armistice signed in Minsk, because we know the answer we were given from so-called separatists. They said they do not consider the area of so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics as the territory of a previous jurisdiction, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And this was a direct comment. Accordingly, a part which arose in Ukraine has one position, and official Kyiv and Ukraine President has a different position. Where they face the reality — is an open question. Apparently, it is more about PR.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: So, will there be any political consequences?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: It will depend exactly on several people: the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, the Russian President Vladimir Putin and heads of the States and the European Union.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: What is future status?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: What can this law do to uncontrolled by the administrative management of central authorities of Ukraine territories? You can take whatever you want, but whether people accept it — an open question. As the vast majority of Ukrainians sabotaged "dictatorial laws “of Yanukovych, as well that part of Ukraine simply will not obey these initiatives if they do not serve the interests of the people supporting, unfortunately, separatists.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: Thus, what are consequences of the new law?
Viknyanskyy Pavlo: You know, I go back again to the woman… Well, she is gone — I can gather my friends, cry, sit with them, hold feast. What is the impact? Well, we can go, try to turn back her, but it will not save the situation. As we said, situation can only be solved by peace or divorce.
We stand on positions of united and unitary Ukraine, although very decentralized. Federalists or federasts wont even think how to make reforms in Ukraine so that to strengthen it and at the same time to give local communities the rights! How to save the situation — is the next question, we are ready to discuss that.
Tetiana Khmelnytska: Let is discuss.
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: I, again, go back to the final of Studrespublika-2014. This is actually a huge focus group that gathers participants from absolutely all regions of Ukraine, which are officially delegated; who go through a stringent competitive selection and it means that its result is quite reliable or scientifically speaking, valid.
We found out 5 very interesting scripts, these 5 scenarios relating to how we move forward in Ukraine. This is scenario of non-alignment. Next — a scenario, which is quite controversial — Ukraine should be the centre of the Baltic-Black Sea axis, which must become the place that would combine within Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok and including democratic Russia, in a single entity that is strong and provides power to all. This is a scenario targeting mainly the United States, which was not very effective in the game, by the way. This is a scenario of European integration and a focus on Europe, but it provides the further continuation of the situation with destabilization of Ukraine, that wont be sober and peaceful east of Ukraine, unfortunately, in this situation. Next — a war to the victorious end, after that will be separating of the cities of Donbas by large corporations, which will be ready to assume public responsibility for the lives of individual territories, cities and associated infrastructure, while rebuilding them as the cities of future, the territories not for minor repairs, but for social, cultural and economic innovation. [And the script about a cooperation with China].
Tetiana Khmelnytska: You said: «war to the victorious end», and if not victorious?
Pavlo Viknyanskyy: Average true patriot should not just believe in their country, but to be convinced of the right path and in a chosen path. Although we must understand that the winning path may be different. For some people victory is a liquidation of Ukrainian statehood, but it is definitely not the way of people who believe in Ukraine and are willing to make different sacrifices, up to the extreme sacrifice — their own lives.
And here arises the following question: the question of genuine mobilization in Ukraine. It is not a question of military mobilization; I mean a social mobilization, economic mobilization, humanitarian mobilization, which is not happening in Ukraine.
There is civil war in Ukraine, which is due to interference of external forces from Russia, now has turned into a war with Russia. And all the resources of the country must be configured on that, and what is more — in a centralized way!
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About 5 possible scenarios of development of Ukraine, which were born in the 2014 .jpg)
Tetiana Khmelnytska.jpg)
Pavlo Viknyanskyy
